Disney continue their assault on the summer this weekend with ‘Spider-Man: Far From Home’, the latest instalment in the MCU. Opening to a Tuesday-record gross puts ‘Far From Home’ in the perfect frame for the Thursday-Friday Independence Day holiday, and with only A24’s horror ‘Midsommar’ as competition, we could be in the midst of a very worthy franchise-follow-up to ‘Avengers: Endgame’.
So, what’s opening this weekend?
‘Spider-Man: Far From Home’ opened to a Tuesday-record $39.2m, beating out fellow adaptation ‘The Amazing Spider-Man’s previous record of $35m from 7 years ago. With the matter of the unusual release date settled, the eyes are now firmly on the Thursday and Friday Independence Day holiday, which’ll surely further boost the film’s credentials and set it on its way to a $200m 6-day start.
It isn’t as easy as that, though. As seen last weekend by ‘Annabelle 3’, the likelihood that die-hard fans will have seen the film on the opening days are only heightened for such an establish franchise, leaving the families and the regulars for the weekend. That’s certainly Sony’s viewpoint; their $125m 6-day forecast hasn’t moved an inch for weeks.
There’s something different about this, though. Whether it’s the $120m+ already earned from China after a week (predecessor ‘Homecoming’ made $119.7m in its entire run there), the 92% on Rotten Tomatoes, or the fact that it’s coming off the back of the 2nd biggest film of all time, there’s a feeling that ‘Far From Home’ could truly fly.
The film sees the return of Tom Holland as Peter Parker, with Jon Watts returning to the director’s chair. Dealing with the aftermath of ‘Endgame’, Peter travels across Europe with his school, only to encounter Nick Fury and Mysterio (played by Jake Gyllenhaal). The stakes have certainly increased since ‘Homecoming’, which opened to $117m in 2017 on its way to a $334.2m domestic total. ‘Far From Home’ is aiming for a billion, and its domestic journey should start with $175m by Sunday night.
That leaves Ari Aster’s latest release ‘Midsommar’ as the other wide opening of the upcoming weekend. The film, starring Florence Pugh, Jack Reynor, and Will Poulter, is the director’s 2nd major film after 2018’s critical darling ‘Hereditary’, and follows a group of friends who travel to Sweden, but end up at the mercy of a cult.
We again can look at last weekend’s ‘Annabelle 3’, which also opened on a Wednesday, to help gauge ‘Midsommar’s performance, even though the former’s $3.5m Tuesday night preview grosses outweighs ‘Midsommar’s $1.1m. Still, using a similar multiplier between that Tuesday night number and the entire 5-day weekend (i.e. 8.89x) only gives ‘Midsommar’ a $10m start, far short of ‘Hereditary’s $13.6m 3-day opening 12 months ago. This may make sense considering the vast array of horrors we’ve had in the last 2 weekends, but we’ll push the boat out a bit here, forecasting an $18m 5-day start.
What else is on?
Although ‘Toy Story 4’ will vacate the top spot, it’ll continue to go from strength-to-strength this weekend, earning roughly $35m between Friday and Sunday night. The film, which will pass $300m domestically by the end of the weekend, will catapult itself up the Pixar charts as their 6th biggest of all time, behind only ‘Finding Nemo’, ‘Inside Out’, ‘Toy Story 3’, ‘Finding Dory’, and ‘Incredibles 2’. Last weekend’s top newbie ‘Annabelle 3’ won’t have quite the same luck however, with its near 60% drop meaning it’ll bring in just $9m in its 2nd weekend.