Box Office

Weekend Box Office Predictions – 06/12/19

‘Playmobil’ to bomb with a $6m opening as ‘Frozen 2’ goes for hat-trick

After the excitement of Thanksgiving, we’re brought back down to earth with the post-holiday window, but after last year’s 2-week period saw a grand total of 0 new wide releases, 2019 dares to dream with just the 1. STX animation ‘Playmobil: The Movie’ finally enters the U.S. after earning $12.5m from 50 markets since August, but expect no ‘LEGO Movie’-like openings here; audiences are very much still on the Frozen 2’ hype. That film aims to continue its blistering start with a near-$60m gross, before next weekend’s ‘Jumanji: The Next Level’ enters to threaten its position as #1.

So, what’s opening this weekend?

Adventure comedy ‘Playmobil: The Movie’, based on the range of toys from manufacturer Brandstätter, aims to seriously challenge ‘Frozen 2’s dominance at the Box Office this weekend. It’s an optimistic goal to say the least: ‘Playmobil’s chances of success are as slim as anything, and isn’t helped by being up against one of the most popular animated franchises in cinematic history.

Of course, battling ‘Frozen’ is only the case in the U.S, as it’s stateside release comes months after its international rollout, which began in the late summer with France, the country of production. It’s gone on to earn a paltry $12.5m, with the U.S. remaining its only hope of scraping some credibility.

And my goodness, will it not. Its $75m budget towers above the critically superior ‘The LEGO Movie’ by over $10m, and its 24% on Rotten Tomatoes draws more comparisons to fellow-STX-animated-toy flop ‘Uglydolls’ (28%), which bombed with just an $8.6m opening. A similar story’s likely for ‘Playmobil’, whose equally strong cast (including Anya Taylor-Joy, Jim Gaffigan, Daniel Radcliffe, and Meghan Trainor) and exciting director in Lino DiSalvo won’t prevent this from just a $6m opening.



 

What else is on?

Frozen 2’s on target for a hattrick of Box Office wins, with this weekend’s earnings closing in on the $60m mark. If it manages the forecasted gross, it’ll be the 6th highest 3rd weekend for a singular film, behind only Infinity War’, ‘Endgame’, ‘Black Panther, ‘Avatar’, and ‘The Force Awakens’. Considering each of these films managed to earn at least $670m domestically, ‘Frozen 2’ is in good company.

It’ll also be good news for Rian Johnson and ‘Knives Out’, as the murder-mystery looks to add another $16m onto its total. By Sunday night, ‘Knives Out’ will have carved out a lovely $65m domestic total, and over $100m worldwide. Drama ‘Queen & Slim’ will gross another $8m to reach $28m domestically.

Rank Last Week’s Rank Film STUDIO Budget JUMPCUT’s prediction Weekend drop Week no.
1 1 Frozen 2 Disney $150m $59.3m -31.0% 3
2 2 Knives Out Lionsgate $40m $15.5m -42.1% 2
3 5 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Sony $8.5m -27.8% 3
4 4 Queen & Slim Universal $20m $7.8m -34.4% 2
5 2 Ford v Ferrari Fox-Disney $98m $7.1m -46.1% 4
6 New! Playmobil STX Entertainment $75m $6m 1
7 7 Playing with Fire Paramount $30m $2.9m -31.3% 5
8 6 21 Bridges STX Entertainment $33m $2.8m -49.9% 3
9 8 Midway Lionsgate $100m $2.4m -38.8% 5
10 9 Last Christmas Universal $25m $1.4m -30.3% 5



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