Another Packed Weekend Sees ‘Good Boys’ Play Dirty With ‘Angry Birds 2’ For Top Spot: Box Office Predictions
They’re coming like buses now.
Just a week on from having 5 wide releases in a single weekend, the scheduling Gods have landed another Box Office curse upon the studios, with 5 more opening to the public this Friday. Among them is the R-rated comedy ‘Good Boys’, which aims to finish top of the class ahead of ‘Angry Birds 2’, while horror-sequel ’47 Meters Down: Uncaged’, British comedy-drama ‘Blinded by the Light’, and Richard Linklater’s ‘Where’d You Go, Bernadette’ battle amongst themselves for a place in the top 10.
So, what’s opening this weekend?
It’s been a long 3 years since ‘The Angry Birds Movie’ earned a surprising $107.5m domestic, and $352.3m global total. Since then, the property has strayed further away from mainstream culture, lending many (well, us) to question the logic of waiting 3 years to release the follow-up of a film that had arguably missed the boat upon its debut.
It’s almost similar to ‘The LEGO Movie 2’, which, although suffered from a longer gap between movies as well as dilution from unnecessary spinoffs, fell by 70% domestically and was, by all means, a Box Office flop. Now, we’re not saying that ‘Angry Birds 2’ will only earn $30m in the States (the 1st opened to $38.2m), but we can’t see a performance even resembling the one that broke the $100m barrier in 2016.
What ‘Angry Birds 2’ has working in its favour however, is genuinely good reviews. Its 74% on the Tomatometer is substantially better than its predecessor’s 44%, while both share a solid B+ on Cinemascore. The film, which opened on Wednesday to take advantage of the summer holiday, sees the return of Jason Sudeikis, Maya Rudolph, Bill Hader, and Peter Dinklage, as well as the introduction of Leslie Jones, Akwafina, and Sterling K. Brown amongst others.
While Sony hope these new additions will help the film soar, we can’t shake the feeling of a LEGO-like fall, especially with ‘The Lion King’ and ‘Dora’ as serious competition. We forecast a $20m 5-day, and $15m 3-day opening then for ‘Angry Birds 2’, who’ll be closely followed by ‘Good Boys’, the Seth Rogen-produced R-rated comedy starring Jacob Tremblay, Keith L. Williams, Brady Noon, Will Forte, and more.
The film follows Max (Tremblay) and 2 best friends Thor and Lucas (Noon, Williams) who get invited to a party, and the mayhem that ensues. It’s a tried and tested comedy trope, with ‘Superbad’ and ‘Booksmart’ both attempting the formula with mixed results. Still, this recipe follows the former by adding a dash of Seth Rogen, Evan Goldberg, and Jonah Hill as producers, which could give it the kick that many comedies of the year so far have severely lacked.
Only 2 comedies in 2019 have ventured past the $50m domestic mark – Tyler Perry’s ‘A Madea Funeral’ ($73.3m), and Will Packer’s ‘What Men Want’ ($54.6m). Without the audience of ‘Madea’, or Packer’s expertise and a strong property like ‘What Men Want’ behind it, ‘Good Boys’ feels destined to open to the level of other critically-acclaimed, original R-rated comedies in recent memory (think ‘Game Night’) – in the mid-teens. Its RT rating of 87% won’t help ‘Good Boys’ improve its grade, although a $14.5m opening from a $20m budget is still an excellent start.
Next is the highly-rated coming-of-age film from ‘Bend it Like Beckham’ director Gurinder Chadha, ‘Blinded by the Light’. Based off of the life of the screenplay’s writer Sarfraz Manzoor, the film sees British teenager Javed (Viveik Kalra) fall in love with the music of Bruce Springsteen. An interesting premise, but also one that draws on the same principles of recent Brit-hits ‘Yesterday’, ‘Rocketman’, and ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’: music. We’re not saying it’ll hit the $900m mark like ‘BoRhap’, but ‘Yesterday’s $17m opening would be a realistic target – if the competition wasn’t so heavy. Unfortunately it is, but our $11m forecast is far from concerning.
What is concerning though is the release of ’47 Meters Down: Uncaged’ just 5 weeks after the release of similar underwater-thriller-horror ‘Crawl’, which opened to $12m, and sits on a solid $38.3m domestically. The sequel to 2017’s hit, which starred Mandy Moore and earned $63m from just a $5m budget, must contend with an audience who’ve already had their fill with the niche genre, as well last weekend’s $21m-opener ‘Scary Stories’. We can’t see it emulating ’47 Meters Down’s $11.2m start, with ‘Uncaged’ forecast to open below $10m, with just $9m.
Finally, we see Richard Linklater’s latest release ‘Where’d You Go Bernadette’, his first film since 2017’s ‘Last Flying Flag’. Boasting an equally star-studded cast in Cate Blanchett, Billy Crudrup, Kristen Wiig, and Judy Greer, the comedy-drama is adapted from the popular 2012 novel of the same name, but will fail to build on the existing fandom, with just a $3.5m start.
What else is on?
After last weekend saw ‘Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark’ leapfrog ‘Dora and the Lost City of Gold’, we’re expecting another switcheroo this time around, with ‘Dora’ earning $10m to reach the $35m domestic mark. ‘Scary Stories’, meanwhile, should earn around $8m to hit a similar running total. Both are a far cry from ‘Hobbs & Shaw’, whose $13m weekend will keep things competitive with the 2 new openers vying for the top spot.
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