‘Miss Bala’ Can’t Perform Against The Opposition On Super Bowl Weekend: Box Office Predictions
It’s the Super Bowl this weekend, which’ll see millions of Americans gear up to watch the LA Rams face-off against the New England Patriots. It’s generally considered as the most-watched TV event of the year, justifying why only one movie takes to the field this time around, with studios being extra cautious over this historically-low-grossing Box Office period. Still, it was Sony who took the plunge this weekend, releasing action-thriller ‘Miss Bala’, starring Gina Rodriguez and Anthony Mackie.
The remake of the 2011 Mexican film of the same name sees Rodriguez star in the main role as Gloria, whose best friend gets kidnapped in Mexico by a drug cartel. She, with the help of the DEA and her wits, must rescue her before it’s too late. Directed by ‘Twilight’s Catherine Hardwick, ‘Miss Bala’ (translated as ‘Miss Bullet’) hopes to shoot down the chances of bombing in the midst of the ‘Big Game’.
Of course, the Super Bowl and the cinema aren’t playing a zero-sum game: the two can co-exist. Recent years have seen some big hitters, from the $30.5m opener of ‘Dear John’ in 2010, ‘Warm Bodies’ $20.4m from 2013, and the double-bill of ‘Chronicle’ ($22m) and ‘The Woman in Black’ ($20.9m) a year before giving hope to the $15m-budgeter.
More hope comes from Sony’s 2019 track record itself; both of the studio’s releases (‘Escape Room’ and ‘A Dog’s Way Home’) are rated ‘Rotten’ (as is ‘Miss Bala’) on the Tomatometer, yet both opened to over $10m.
‘Miss Bala’ won’t, though. Opening in just over 2,000 cinemas across the States and holding a poor 30% on the Tomatometer doesn’t bode well, stoking the fear that the film is merely being dumped early. We’re looking at similar films like last year’s ‘Proud Mary’ ($10m opening) to base our forecasts off of, but it’s more likely a start close to $8m is in store. Not the greatest opening, but on a $15m budget, there won’t be many complaints.
This leaves ‘Glass’ as the Super Bowl weekend winner with around $10m, the lowest Box Office number 1 since ‘Jumanji’s $10.9m exactly 12 months ago. By Sunday night, ‘Glass’ will’ve earned a very respectable $90m to keep its $100m domestic goal very much alive as well as $200m globally, all without a release date announced for major player China. The Shyamalanassaice was never in question, it seems.
Finally, last weekend’s new entrants ‘The Kid Who Could Be King’ and ‘Serenity’ continue to struggle. While ‘The Kid’ barely stay afloat in the top ten with $4m this weekend, McConaughey and Hathaway’s thriller ‘Serenity’ will sink like a stone with just $1.7m.