Weekend BO Predictions: On A Potentially Record-Breaking Weekend, Will ‘Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’ Open With A Roar?
It’s sequel season in the Box Office sphere, with ‘Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’ following in the footsteps of ‘Ocean’s 8’ and record-breaking ‘Incredibles 2’ in its attempt to top the charts this weekend, in a live-action record 4,475 cinemas. The follow-up to Colin Trevorrow’s 2015 continuation of the ‘Jurassic Park’ franchise (which surprisingly broke the then-opening weekend record with $208.8m) looks to follow in the footsteps of last week’s ‘Incredibles 2’ and provide mass appeal. The problem is, Pixar sequel completely smashed expectations and performed brilliantly across the four main audience quadrants, providing men, women, alongside over and under-25s alike worth quality viewing. This then led to an animated record-breaking $187.2m opening for the film, practically ensuring it’s future Box Office profits. ‘Jurassic World 2’, on the other hand, has a 53% rotten rating on the Tomatometer, and is the sequel not many Americans seemingly asked for, much like ‘Solo’ some weeks ago.
Fears of this being another ‘Solo’ are quite extreme however; ‘Jurassic World 2’ has already made $450m in International markets without the film even reaching U.S. cinemas, and crossed over the $100m mark in China in its first 3 days. It aims to see a drop akin to ‘The Last Jedi’, which fell 13% from ‘The Force Awakens’ for a $220m opening. The same for ‘Jurassic World 2’ would give it a massive $181.7m domestic start, but without such a dedicated fanbase as ‘Star Wars’, even the most optimistic of analysts would roll their eyes at such a prediction. Therefore, I’m looking at ‘Rogue One’, which dropped by 37% from ‘The Force Awakens’. A similar fall from ‘Jurassic World’ would leave its sequel opening to $131m, and taking into account ‘Incredibles 2’s performance, we’re thinking ‘Jurassic World 2’ will hit $125m in its first 3 days. Fun fact: this is to be only the second time ever that a $100m opener has immediately followed another $100m opener in the next week, after ‘Pirates of the Caribbean 3’ followed ‘Shrek 3’ in 2007.
Looking to take advantage of ‘Jurassic World’s disappointing opening is ‘Incredibles 2’, which aims to make history by being the first film to ever make $100m or more in the same weekend as another. No two films have ever simultaneously achieved the feat on the same weekend; the closest this ever came was in 2015, when in a curious case of reverse fortune, Disney favourite ‘Inside Out’ opened to $90.4m during ‘Jurassic World’s second weekend (where it itself grossed $106.6m). ‘Incredibles 2’ would have to drop by 45.3% to reach $100m, and that’s where we’re hoping it reaches.
Next, is ‘Ocean’s 8’, and this continues to emulate ‘Ghostbusters’ with around a $10m 3rd weekend. Comedy ‘Tag’ would love to mirror ‘Game Night’s second weekend performance with a 38.8% drop, but will probably perform closer to ‘Neighbors 2’ and fall somewhere in the 50% region. A gross of $7.5m will be enough for fourth place, ahead of ‘Solo’, who will finally pass the $200m domestic total this weekend, for a gross of $6m, in-line with the performance of ‘Days of Future Past’. Closely trailing is ‘Deadpool 2’ with $5.6m, now reaching $700m worldwide and $300m domestically.
A24 horror ‘Hereditary’ continues its impressive run, and looks to earn $4.3m in the U.S. this weekend, leaving the film just $19m away from being A24’s biggest domestic hit, and close to making $50m globally. ‘Infinity War’ should come 8th with a gross of $3.8m, and finally ‘Superfly’ and ‘Adrift’ round off the top ten with $3.2m and $1.1m each.
Will ‘Jurassic World 2’ and ‘Incredibles 2’ make Box Office history, or will the latter fall just short of the $100m target? Let us know your thoughts on Instagram and Twitter – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.