Weekend BO Predictions: ‘Incredibles 2’ Hints At A Record-Breaking Opening Worth the 14 Year Wait
It’s taken well over a decade for Brad Bird and Pixar to release a sequel to the 2004 sensation ‘The Incredibles’, and ‘Incredibles 2’ looks to blast the animated opening weekend record to shreds. The current record of $135.1m was set by ‘Finding Dory’ in 2016, another Disney sequel that built upon the anticipation following one of the most popular animated films of all time. The edge that ‘Incredibles 2’ has over ‘Finding Dory’, however, is that a) it’s following a film that had always hinted toward a sequel, and b) it’s a superhero film in an age where caped crusaders regularly top the Box Office charts. From this, we believe ‘Incredibles 2’ will make around $150m in its first 3 days.
Making a sequel 14 years later does pose problems; retirement caused Jonathan Banks to replace Bud Luckey as the voice of Rick Dicker, while young Dash’s voice artist, Spencer Fox, is now too old to play a child. The World Cup kicking off on the same weekend also brings strong competition for viewers. However, a 95% on Rotten Tomatoes (and the fact that the USA didn’t even qualify) hints that the only thing that’s truly changed from its predecessor, was dropping ‘The’ from the title.
In a potential triumph in counter-programming, star-studded comedy, ‘Tag’, opens in over 3,300 cinemas in the U.S. this weekend — and hopes to use the unique premise to its advantage. It stars (amongst many others) Jeremy Renner, Jon Hamm, Hannibal Burress, and Annabelle Wallis, and is a completely different type of offering to the family-friendly (and millennial darling) ‘Incredibles 2’. First time director Jeff Tomsic helms this $28m production, which aims to emulate ‘Central Intelligence’s opening (on the same weekend as record-breaking ‘Finding Dory’) and make around $35m. No chance here though, as its R-rating puts it in the camp of this year’s ‘Game Night’, and a bunch of others in the mid-teens region. Therefore, an opening of around $15m is likely, and it’ll look to hone in on a male, over-25 audience in the coming weeks — one that won’t have too much competition until ‘Sicario 2’ at the end of June.
Finally, there’s action crime film ‘Superfly’, which actually opened on Wednesday to avoid a complete collapse against ‘Incredibles 2’. Unfortunately, the plan backfired as it only brought in around $1.2m from its opening day. The remake of the 1972 Blaxploitation film, ‘Super Fly’, stars Jason Mitchell, Rick Ross, and Michael K. Williams, and is produced by rapper, Future. What it will inevitably lack in Box Office numbers (not helped by a 53% on Rotten Tomatoes), it’ll at least make up for in catchy songs (the soundtrack features everybody from Future to Miguel), and a stylistic look, as Director X (known for many famous music videos) takes charge. We’re not expecting this to really take off, and will only see around $4.5m from Friday to Sunday.
What else is on?
‘Ocean’s 8’ looks to cement second place with around $20.8m, a 50% drop from last weekend. Its daily changes almost mirror that of ‘Ghostbusters’, which saw a 54% fall in its second weekend. Superhero flick, ‘Deadpool 2’ looks to close in on the $300m domestic mark and, although it won’t hit it this week, a $7.5m gross will aid its pursuit. ‘Incredibles 2’ won’t affect it too much, but it will see a massive impact on ‘Solo’, which could have a large chunk of its audience lost to the animated blockbuster. A gross around $6.3m is similar to what we believe ‘Hereditary’ will land in its second weekend, showing that audiences weren’t as put off as its Cinemascore suggests. Although horrors are quite a front-loaded genre, ‘Hereditary’ should take advantage of a summer that promises a leggy run.
Next is ‘Infinity War’, which recently became the first ever comic book movie to make $2bn worldwide. Its run in recent weekends has been particularly impressive and will continue in the face of superhero competition, with a $4m gross. Finally, we have ‘Book Club’ with an estimated $2.8m, and ‘Adrift’, which barely remains afloat on $2.6m.
Is ‘Incredibles 2’ going to break the animated opening record, or will it fall just short of ‘Finding Dory’? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.